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Here’s how I imagine a recent product interview at Apple went down:
Apple PM: How do you feel about your iPhone?
User: Well, it’s really important to me, and I feel like it’s a necessary evil in today’s world. But truth be told, I really hate how much time I spend on it. Being on a screen so much does not make me happy and I wish there was a better way.
Apple PM: Hmm, that’s interesting. So what if we could do something to stop you from scrolling so much?
User: Oh my that would be lovely. Please do!
[Apple exec reads the feedback]
Eureka! Let’s stick two screens right in front of your eyeballs, just 1 inch in fact. You won’t have to worry about scrolling because you’ll basically just be inside the screen. Instead of using one iPhone in your hand, we’ll just strap the equivalent of four iPhones to your forehead.
[Me—the user—sees the end product]
Aah yes, you guys nailed it. This is exactly how I want to talk with my wife! No more iPhone screens to distract us from the present moment and make us feel like shit after hours of usage.
Now when I open up about my tough day at work, Julia can smile lifelessly back at me (strange choice of photo there, Apple) waiting for her ad roll to finish first. I mean, have you seen Minority Report?
Folks—and I say this as a tech enthusiast—the future is looking scary.
There are serious questions to be asked about Spatial Computing’s effect on human health, well-being, and frankly, our sanity.
There is just too much data to link to that shows the correlation between screen time and mental health. But here’s one fun chart to illustrate by Humane Tech.
But really, all the data you need is to just to ask yourself: Do you enjoy the days when you just binge your phone and your screens? Exactly.
Quick disclaimer: This post isn’t our usual flavor. Instead of actionable breakdowns of a topic (like the ones on M&A, friction, and velocity), there isn’t much on the tactical menu today.
Rather, this is me sharing my take on what could well become a very big part of our reality (will it be “reality” though?) and a few of the implications. There is one big “here’s what you can do about it” bit of advice at the end, but not to mislead you, it’s not all that profound. Although, it is the only action item that I think matters.
Today’s post will cover:
Vision Pro: The ChatGPT of Spatial Computing
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly ✨
Everything or Nothing ✨
The chasm, and how we can hold the line ✨
Alright, let’s talk Vision Pro and Spatial Computing. AKA—cool shit that nobody needs.
The team over at Cupertino, as usual, were not the first folks to invent a headset that does AR or VR. Google played their hand with Google Glass, and Meta has been working on Quest for while.
But, the reason I’m picking on Apple today is simple: Apple have impeccable skill at a) making something go mainstream, and b) justifying other folks to start investing in a space. Nobody was really fussed or talking much about Spatial Computing—which is really just AR and VR—before the Vision Pro came out.
This makes the beautifully crafted, and packaged, $3,500 headset that hit the shelves a few weeks ago, in my view, an inflection point for the space.
A great analogous here is OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and how it changed the trajectory of AI forever. Now, like it or not, we live in a world that’s full of AI. And it will continue to become an ever increasing part of our lives. For good and for bad.
I think Apple just did this with Spatial Computing, and I’m terrified of how this, for one, is going to impact our mental health—and that of the kids.
I have not tried the headset personally, but from what I’ve heard, the 8K and 4K visuals are incredibly good. In expected Apple fashion, they’ve created and irresistible pitch of usability through attention to detail in design, form, function and finesse.
Once you’ve tightened the headband and allowed the device to scan all your biometrics, the real world floods into view. Suddenly, all your favorite apps are imposed on your surroundings.
Our sci-fi future is here
Except, unlike as this image below misleading suggests, you are not looking through the Vision Pro and seeing the world with Augmented Reality layered on. No, the cameras and sensors (of which there are many) do the looking out and around for you. They then feed the image back to you. It’s called video passthrough, presenting you a real time view of what'‘s going on outside.
Yea, you can’t see through it.
No matter how you cut the cake, it’s a virtual experience locking you up inside its own created world. But the problem, unlike with most VR like graphics (think Metaverse vibe) which clearly feel computer generated, passthrough technology looks incredibly realistic. It feels real.
That is deeply problematic: When the cookie doesn’t taste so sweet, it tricks you into eating more than you should.
And this life-replicating view of the world presents a real use case for AR. But it’s putting us on path to living in pixel-land in here. 👇
Each display panel pixel is apparently the size of a red blood cell – 7.5µm or thereabouts. You can fit 54 of them onto one pixel on the latest iPhone.
And sure, you might think there’s no way we’re all going to spend our days running around with ski goggles strapped to our heads with 2 hour battery life.
You’d be absolutely right. Except, this is by the far the worst version of the product Apple will every make. And Apple building in the Spatial Computing space is just welcoming in more innovators and investors.
So, as I pointed out in our OpenAI analysis just one month after ChatGPT went public, our future is determined by The Law of Accelerating Returns.
Simply put, it’s compound interest for technological progress.
That means the rate of change in technology exponentially increases. We’ve seen that overall as humanity, but also in each and every single revolution that happened, and with specific technologies inside those revolutions, like computers.
This is true again for phones strapped to our head. Things will be way more problematic when the a) the device is much smaller (think a pair of glasses), b) it’s much cheaper, and c) there are way more use cases and apps.
All of that is inevitable. I promise you.
It really makes me ask the question: Did Apple think for a second about the implications of this beyond on their bottom line?
Apple isn’t a startup. They’re a market-defining company with incredible responsibility. They don’t have to make things users want, because they’re well-versed in making things first, and making users want them after.
For Apple, build it and we will come is true.
But for products that present real risk, that trope sounds a lot more like an opioid dealer to me.🤷
Is this actually where the pendulum is swinging?
You don’t need me to tell you that the past decade, if not more, has just brought us more and more screen time. More time plugged in. More apps.
So, is this the direction we as end users really want to continue, or is Apple with their trillions of dollars and influence artificially pulling the pendulum against us? Jay Clouse describes this phenomenon well:
Trends are like a pendulum. The pendulum itself represents the culture's collective attention and it swings from one extreme to another. As it swings closer to one end of the spectrum, it picks up speed and momentum — but it has a limit.
At some point, the pendulum swings in the opposite direction. What was cool becomes uncool, and what was uncool becomes cool (and back and forth and back and forth). The pendulum is a powerful force. You want to be just ahead of the pendulum. You want to be ahead of the culture in identifying a different approach so that you feel momentum at your back as the culture catches up.
I haven’t done enough of my own research to give you numbers, but this is not what I think people want. I think the real trend is:
Community, and in real life community in particular.
Anti-screens. People in general are not happy with their screen time and phone relationships. Hence the rise of dumb devices and screen less tech (Humane, Rabbit).
We’re plugged in enough as it is. This feels like innovation for the sake of innovation and profit—not with us in mind.
I would really love to know what you think about the pendulum. I could be wrong here. What do you think the real trend is?
Either way, let’s talk implications.
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