May 2, 2023·edited May 2, 2023Liked by Jaryd Hermann
Great list, Jaryd. Running out of money is the main physical reason. Unfortunately fraud was rampant at the last peak, especially when diligence processes were done too quickly and often not in person. FTX is a case study: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/sequoia-ftx-214million-disaster
Thanks, Yuri! Absolutely, no more cash is the visible cause of death. These other reasons are the co-morbidities that lead up to that. Oooh, nice piece -- a great hook. Just subscribed and will read this today, thanks for sharing :)
Great article Jaryd, thank you very much. WILD to think what a difference to a video product 6s to 5s to 30s to 60s can be from a customer standpoint. How you constrain your creative tools for these quick to play community apps can have such an impact on retention and growth. Curious your thoughts on how Vine might have pivoted to expand beyond ad based revenue while maintaining its 6s core user experience? Or do you think the longer-form play for Vine was to essentially become TikTok pre TikTok and expand length/tools? IMO that initial rise was at least partly due to the novel constraint...could it have maintained that mission and growth by focusing simply on tool integration and user interactions or was more needed? Main takeaway...DON'T SELL!
Right!? That's probably what they thought too, hence keeping it at 6s. But the stagnation and lack of change killed the experimentation culture Viners loved.
I think if they stayed with 6s, and maybe solved for the (1) creator monetization problem, and (2) connection/discovery issue, then perhaps that would have been enough to keep that Core Transaction model moving for them, retaining creators, and making ad-based a viable biz-model. Also, right at the end of their run, they did increase the time limit. But it was too late.
So I think if they had listened to their users earlier, to your point, they'd naturally have shifted into a TikTok. Would have been interesting to see how that would all have played out.
Do you see any value whatsoever in Twitter now trying to dig up Vine's grave? Is relaunching a novelty product that simple and deceased ever a potential success play? Having a hard time thinking of a parallel where something like that succeeded on the back of anything other than nostalgia (of which I'm not certain Vine carries much cultural cache), but I also think the market for content/creator community tools is unnecessarily top heavy and we could use alternative spaces (and will maybe see something something ai something something take hold at some point in the next few years...at least to help tackle the search/discovery issues that plague most content services).
That's an interesting question. For starters, in Twitter's current state, I don't think they're in a place to revive any older products right now. But put that aside, simply relaunching Vine wouldn't work.
TikTok is Vine now, and so much more. It solved the problems Vine didn't, and they have very deep moats. To your point about a more AI-focused play...what most people don't know is the company behind TikTok, ByteDance, is an AI company. There's a lot to unpack with this...but keep eye out for my next deep dive ;)
Truly, my absolute pleasure. Love writing them, and thank you for reading! Would be a little awkward if I was just shouting into the void over here. :)
Great list, Jaryd. Running out of money is the main physical reason. Unfortunately fraud was rampant at the last peak, especially when diligence processes were done too quickly and often not in person. FTX is a case study: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/sequoia-ftx-214million-disaster
Thanks, Yuri! Absolutely, no more cash is the visible cause of death. These other reasons are the co-morbidities that lead up to that. Oooh, nice piece -- a great hook. Just subscribed and will read this today, thanks for sharing :)
Great format, I love it! Agree 1,000% on the premise: it's equally insightful to dive into failure stories.
Looking forward to learning about the next tenant of your promising graveyard. 😁
Thank you, Tom! Super glad you enjoyed it. Gunna be starting the next one soon :)
Great article Jaryd, thank you very much. WILD to think what a difference to a video product 6s to 5s to 30s to 60s can be from a customer standpoint. How you constrain your creative tools for these quick to play community apps can have such an impact on retention and growth. Curious your thoughts on how Vine might have pivoted to expand beyond ad based revenue while maintaining its 6s core user experience? Or do you think the longer-form play for Vine was to essentially become TikTok pre TikTok and expand length/tools? IMO that initial rise was at least partly due to the novel constraint...could it have maintained that mission and growth by focusing simply on tool integration and user interactions or was more needed? Main takeaway...DON'T SELL!
So glad to hear you liked it!
Right!? That's probably what they thought too, hence keeping it at 6s. But the stagnation and lack of change killed the experimentation culture Viners loved.
I think if they stayed with 6s, and maybe solved for the (1) creator monetization problem, and (2) connection/discovery issue, then perhaps that would have been enough to keep that Core Transaction model moving for them, retaining creators, and making ad-based a viable biz-model. Also, right at the end of their run, they did increase the time limit. But it was too late.
So I think if they had listened to their users earlier, to your point, they'd naturally have shifted into a TikTok. Would have been interesting to see how that would all have played out.
And I agree, sold way too early.
Thanks for reading, and the thoughtful comment!
Do you see any value whatsoever in Twitter now trying to dig up Vine's grave? Is relaunching a novelty product that simple and deceased ever a potential success play? Having a hard time thinking of a parallel where something like that succeeded on the back of anything other than nostalgia (of which I'm not certain Vine carries much cultural cache), but I also think the market for content/creator community tools is unnecessarily top heavy and we could use alternative spaces (and will maybe see something something ai something something take hold at some point in the next few years...at least to help tackle the search/discovery issues that plague most content services).
That's an interesting question. For starters, in Twitter's current state, I don't think they're in a place to revive any older products right now. But put that aside, simply relaunching Vine wouldn't work.
TikTok is Vine now, and so much more. It solved the problems Vine didn't, and they have very deep moats. To your point about a more AI-focused play...what most people don't know is the company behind TikTok, ByteDance, is an AI company. There's a lot to unpack with this...but keep eye out for my next deep dive ;)
Stoked to continue the convo and looking forward to that // appreciate your work bud!
Truly, my absolute pleasure. Love writing them, and thank you for reading! Would be a little awkward if I was just shouting into the void over here. :)
Hey that is worth doing as well too -- do it once a week over at my substack coffee shop...